Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework     

Barbara A. Muhling  Carlos F. Gaitán  Charles A. Stock  Vincent S. Saba  Desiree Tommasi  Keith W. Dixon 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(2):349-372

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.  相似文献   

Revisiting the death of geography in the era of Big Data: the friction of distance in cyberspace and real space   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Su Yeon Han  Keith C. Clarke 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(5):451-469

Many scholars have argued that the importance of geographic proximity in human interactions has been diminished by the use of the Internet, while others disagree with this argument. Studies have noted the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, showing that interactions occur with an inverse relationship between the number of interactions and the distance between the locations of the interactors. However, these studies rarely provide strong evidence to show the influence of distance on interactions in cyberspace, nor do they quantify the differences in the amount of friction of distance between cyberspace and real space. To fill this gap, this study used massive amounts of social media data (Twitter) to compare the influence of distance decay on human interactions between cyberspace and real space in a quantitative manner. To estimate the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, the distance decay function of interactions in each space was modeled. Estimating the distance decay in cyberspace in this study can help predict the degree of information flow across space through social media. Measuring how far ideas can be diffused through social media is useful for users of location-based services, policy advocates, public health officials, and political campaigners.  相似文献   

Waldo R. Tobler (1930–2018)     

Keith C. Clarke 《制图学和地理信息科学》2018,45(4):287-288

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Impact of artificial subsurface drainage on groundwater travel times and baseflow discharge in an agricultural watershed,Iowa (USA)     

Keith E. Schilling  Priyanka Jindal  Nandita B. Basu  Matthew J. Helmers 《水文研究》2012,26(20):3092-3100

Pollutant delivery through artificial subsurface drainage networks to streams is an important transport mechanism, yet the impact of drainage tiles on groundwater hydrology at the watershed scale has not been well documented. In this study, we developed a two‐dimensional, steady‐state groundwater flow model for a representative Iowa agricultural watershed to simulate the impact of tile drainage density and incision depth on groundwater travel times and proportion of baseflow contributed by tile drains. Varying tile drainage density from 0 to 0.0038 m^?1, while maintaining a constant tile incision depth at 1.2 m, resulted in the mean groundwater travel time to decrease exponentially from 40 years to 19 years and increased the tile contribution to baseflow from 0% to an upper bound of 37%. In contrast, varying tile depths from 0.3 to 2.7 m, while maintaining a constant tile drainage density of 0.0038 m^?1, caused mean travel times to decrease linearly from 22 to 18 years and increased the tile contribution to baseflow from 30% to 54% in a near‐linear manner. The decrease in the mean travel time was attributed to decrease in the saturated thickness of the aquifer with increasing drainage density and incision depth. Study results indicate that tile drainage affects fundamental watershed characteristics and should be taken into consideration when evaluating water and nitrate export from agricultural regions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the concept of delivery of sediment and nutrients to stream channels     

Keith Beven  Louise Heathwaite  Phil Haygarth  Des Walling  Rich Brazier  Paul Withers 《水文研究》2005,19(2):551-556

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Late Pleistocene glaciation of the Mt Giluwe volcano,Papua New Guinea     

Timothy T. Barrows  Geoffrey S. Hope  Michael L. Prentice  L. Keith Fifield  Stephen G. Tims 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(19-20):2676-2689

The Mt Giluwe shield volcano was the largest area glaciated in Papua New Guinea during the Pleistocene. Despite minimal cooling of the sea surface during the last glacial maximum, glaciers reached elevations as low as 3200 m. To investigate changes in the extent of ice through time we have re-mapped evidence for glaciation on the southwest flank of Mt Giluwe. We find that an ice cap has formed on the flanks of the mountain on at least three, and probably four, separate occasions. To constrain the ages of these glaciations we present 39 new cosmogenic ³⁶Cl exposure ages complemented by new radiocarbon dates. Direct dating of the moraines identifies that the maximum extent of glaciation on the mountain was not during the last glacial maximum as previously thought. In conjunction with existing potassium/argon and radiocarbon dating, we recognise four distinct glacial periods between 293–306 ka (Gogon Glaciation), 136–158 ka (Mengane Glaciation), centred at 62 ka (Komia Glaciation) and from >20.3–11.5 ka (Tongo Glaciation). The temperature difference relative to the present during the Tongo Glaciation is likely to be of the order of at least 5 °C which is a minimum difference for the previous glaciations. During the Tongo Glaciation, ice was briefly at its maximum for less than 1000 years, but stayed near maximum levels for nearly 4000 years, until about 15.4 ka. Over the next 4000 years there was more rapid retreat with ice free conditions by the early Holocene.  相似文献   

The rich diversity of estuaries     

Keith Dyer 《Estuaries and Coasts》1990,13(4):504-505

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On the modelling of sand bedforms using the semivariogram     

Andr Robert  Keith S. Richards 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1988,13(5):459-473

This study shows the usefulness of the semivariogram for modelling sand ripples created by water flows of varied flow intensity. A combination of two mathematical functions is fitted to each sample semivariogram, that is an exponential (or stochastic) component and a periodic component. The parameters of each of these components have direct physical meaning. A non-dimensional ratio combining the two parameters of the exponential model is interpreted as a regularity index (which increases with the degree of regularity of bedform arrangement). This regularity index is inversely related to the Froude number of the flow. The non-dimensional wavelength, estimated from the dominant periodic function, is also inversely and closely related to the Froude number. The wave height, accurately estimated from properties of the two fitted components, is a direct function of flow velocity and is also proportional to the standard deviation of bed elevations. The bedform shape introduces a considerable discrepancy between the generally assumed normal frequency distribution and the empirical distributions of bed height. The series of bed elevations are generally characterized by a mixture of normal distributions having the same variance but different means. The calculation of a covariance assuming a constant and single mean (as in spectral analysis) can therefore be misleading and the problem may be avoided by using the semivariogram.  相似文献   

Inversion for seismic anisotropy using genetic algorithms1     

Steve Horne  Colin MacBeth 《Geophysical Prospecting》1994,42(8):953-974

A general inversion scheme based on a genetic algorithm is developed to invert seismic observations for anisotropic parameters. The technique is applied to the inversion of shear-wave observations from two azimuthal VSP data sets from the Conoco test site in Oklahoma. Horizontal polarizations and time-delays are inverted for hexagonal and orthorhombic symmetries. The model solutions are consistent with previous studies using trial and error matching of full waveform synthetics. The shear-wave splitting observations suggest the presence of a shear-wave line singularity and are consistent with a dipping fracture system which is known to exist at the test site. Application of the inversion scheme prior to full waveform modelling demonstrates that a considerable saving in time is possible whilst retaining the same degree of accuracy.  相似文献   

Upper-mantle velocity structure beneath the Siberian platform   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Keith Priestley  John Cipar  Anatoli Egorkin  Nina Pavlenkova 《Geophysical Journal International》1994,118(2):369-378

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